Has the "Q" totally given up the ghost?

[slowbiscuit]

If you want to be pedantic, I never said "TiVo costs more and delivers less".

<snip>

TL; DR

Bottom line is that smart folks that want a superior DVR choose either Tivo w/lifetime or roll their own HTPC (or both, in my case, because Tivo has yet to deliver the 'whole home' solution at a decent price). Everything else you said is geared towards the masses, and I agree that marketing to monthly is a dubious call for the consumer (but apparently not for Tivo).

But as I said, I really don't care what the masses do - I was strictly talking about the value equation of a lifetime Tivo vs. renting a cable DVR, and I and others are winners there because we're into DVRs for the long haul not the short.

[richard1980]

what would ACTUALLY happen is that Tivo would sell you the box for $350 lifetime, then sprinkle mandatory ads at the beginning and end of each show--no stopping, no FF, no RW.

If you are suggesting that a $350 target price can only be achieved by subsidizing costs with advertising revenue, might I remind you that the dominant players in this market have managed to make profitable DVR boxes for far less than $350 per box without resorting to such tactics. Additionally, if you look at TiVo's financial history for the past 10 years, you'll see that TiVo had $920 million gross income on $2.08 billion in revenues. That's a 44% gross profit margin! In other words, they are selling their boxes for roughly double what it actually costs to make and distribute them. Unfortunately, TiVo has had no choice in the matter because they can't effectively manage their expenses. In the past 10 years, TiVo has spent 60% of their gross income on research and development, and 85% of their gross income on selling, general, and administrative costs. 85% + 60% = 145%. Oops. No wonder they've only had a profit 2 years out of their entire 14-year history. With that kind of poor money management, I'm surprised they're even still in business.

FWIW, TiVo has paid a total of about $50 million to their key executives over the last 5 years. I'm clearly in the wrong business. Give me $50 million and I'll run any company you want into the ground.

Bottom line is that smart folks that want a superior DVR choose either Tivo w/lifetime or roll their own HTPC (or both, in my case, because Tivo has yet to deliver the 'whole home' solution at a decent price). Everything else you said is geared towards the masses, and I agree that marketing to monthly is a dubious call for the consumer (but apparently not for Tivo).

But as I said, I really don't care what the masses do - I was strictly talking about the value equation of a lifetime Tivo vs. renting a cable DVR, and I and others are winners there because we're into DVRs for the long haul not the short.

Now that we can agree on!

[adam1991]

what would ACTUALLY happen is that Tivo would sell you the box for $350 lifetime, then sprinkle mandatory ads at the beginning and end of each show--no stopping, no FF, no RW.

If you are suggesting that a $350 target price can only be achieved by subsidizing costs with advertising revenue,

No, I'm not saying that at all. Read again what I said: " what would ACTUALLY happen is that Tivo would sell you the box for $350 lifetime, then sprinkle mandatory ads at the beginning and end of each show--no stopping, no FF, no RW."

I very specifically did NOT say that that's the only way they could achieve the price.

Got it?

[richard1980]

Not quite....sorry, I'm slow...

[STC]

This could be a new show for A&E;
'When threads turn bad' Any chance of us all sitting round the table with some nice lattes?

[Crash2009]

Has this turned into a cage match?

[slowbiscuit]

More like the usual case of a thread going OT because the subject was a non-starter. We have no idea what Ceton is going to do with the Q (if anything) so it quickly turned to third-party alternatives (Tivo, basically).

IMO the more likely candidate for a third party DVR may come from another company willing to develop something using SiliconDust's new DLNA/DTCP-IP server in their Prime tuners. Will be even better once they add on-the-fly h.264 transcoding in their new 4-tuner units coming later this year. Whether such a DVR can be made commercially viable is a whole 'nother question.

[richard1980]

I don't think the thread turned bad. When discussing the commercial viability of 3rd party DVRs, someone will inevitably try to use TiVo as a benchmark and conclude that TiVo's poor market penetration equates to a very small market for retail DVRs.

I agree completely about SiliconDust. Once DLNA/DTCP-IP is active, the only thing you need is a place to store recordings.

[barnabas1969]

Holy crap. I thought I was bad at derailing threads.

[foxwood]

Holy crap. I thought I was bad at derailing threads.

Something about the cost of mobile phonecalls in Europe, wasn't it?

[barnabas1969]

Holy crap. I thought I was bad at derailing threads.

Something about the cost of mobile phonecalls in Europe, wasn't it?

Yep.

[francorosso]

Regarding Richard's Ivy League MBA... I've gotta say that Richard is obviously a smart guy. I appreciate what he has to offer here.

I don't know the answer to this, but I wonder if Microsoft will even SELL licenses for the Windows 7 Embedded OS into the future. I would imagine that a company wanting to produce a product on W7 Embedded might have to purchase a bulk license NOW before it's too late (unless it's already too late). In either case, there WILL be a limit to the number of licenses available, unless the company (Ceton, in this case) has unlimited funds at its disposal to purchase a TON of licenses before they are no longer available, in hope that they will sell enough units to pay for the up-front licensing cost. You can see how this would limit the number of units that said company could produce before being forced to use W8 Embedded, which in the case of Ceton, will render their extender useless (at least for now) and may not include Media Center as has been discussed previously.

That said, I have to say that I'm severely disappointed with the Echo. It was promised to be "the best Media Center extender ever". Uh... no. Not even close. They seemed to focus on the small form factor of the unit instead of the functionality. I can't imagine too many people being dissatisfied with an Echo that was about the same size as a DMA-2100. I can't imagine too many people being dissatisfied with an Echo that draws about the same power as the DMA-2100. Price/performance/functionality is king. The Echo was put into "beta" in a pre-alpha state that was an embarrassment. If it was my product at the time they put it in beta, I wouldn't have let it go beyond my employees and immediate family. Then, they released it to the public in a state that was somewhere between alpha and beta. More than a month after release to the public, it's still in a beta state. If I owned Ceton, I'd be firing some people quickly... or at least beating them with a switch from a willow tree until they fixed the damn thing. Unless, of course, it was the owner's decision to sell the thing before it was ready. At this point, I feel like I flushed $159 (the beta price) down the toilet. My HP and Linksys extenders already do more than the Echo does, and they are rock solid.

Some people have the belief that frequent firmware/software/driver updates are a good thing. Well, that depends. Some companies NEVER release updates (HP & Linksys extenders), and so problems never get fixed. Other companies (SiliconDust) get it right and leave it alone... my HD HomeRun Prime tuners have been working soooo much better than the InfiniTV tuner I had that I've never looked back. I'm still on the April 2012 firmware on my HDHRP's... and it works just fine. Granted, I have gotten some other problems fixed with my cableco, but the HDHRP was more stable from day #1 than the InfiniTV could even dream to be. Tuning reliability and speed were no comparison between the two products. Some companies fly by the seat of their pants without any real quality control and release updates every day or two or three... and they are ALL filled with bugs that even a cursory evaluation should have detected (1080 stuttering anyone?). The Echo was released to the public without even the most basic functionality that was promised. Is that acceptable? I don't think so.

Being the first company out of the gate with a new product is always an advantage for (short term) sales. Lots of people derided SiliconDust for waiting so long to release their HD HomeRun Prime tuner. An old adage: "Good things come to those who wait."

Do you really want to buy a (just guessing here) $700.00 DVR from a company that released a product like the Echo? Wait... I just laughed so hard that I think I sharted.

Look, I think Media Center is the best thing since sliced bread. It's a damn shame that Microsoft seems to be abandoning it. I do appreciate that a company like Ceton is still trying to advance the technology... but they need to step-up their game and start releasing products that actually do what they promise. The promise of the Ceton Companion (now known as "My Media Center") was that it would include streaming of protected content and a bunch of other things that it still doesn't do. I'm still waiting. The Echo promised that it would be the best extender ever produced. I'm still waiting. The promise of the Q really gave me hope. I understand that the average consumer just wants to buy a device that doesn't cost too much, and can be plugged in... and it just WORKS without too much fiddling. I still hope that idea comes to fruition. But I'm still waiting. And, given Ceton's track record... I don't believe it anymore.

A message to Ceton: Stop telling us that your product will do X, when the final product (if it ever exists) does X/3.

The TiVo has had success because it does one thing well. Focus on that. THAT is what makes companies successful. Do one thing, and do it right.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What he said! I have been alternately thrilled and crushed by my Echo. Wanted to replace three TiVo's and the $50 or so per month I paid them, but the beating I took from my wife and kids made me keep one of the TiVo's for a reliable source to watch TV. The InfiniTV card in my HTPC has performed much better, still has MAJOR problems but I can live with them. The Echo, not so much. I really, really, wanted to have a whole home DVR that I could use in 4 places in the house. Didn't quite work out that way.

Frank

[adam1991]

What "MAJOR" problems do you continue to have with your InfiniTV?

'Cuz I'm not seeing any, after almost two years.

[barnabas1969]

Honestly, I can't say that I ever had "major" problems with my InfiniTV... just that I liked the HD HomeRun Prime much better.

The Echo has been out since the beta in October. I wouldn't have called that a beta... more like alpha, if that. It was released to the general public in December (I think). If you ask me, it's still a beta product. It's not terrible, but it doesn't even measure up to the HP and Linksys extenders. We were promised "the best extender ever made".

[Moderator note: AVR audio discussion moved here: http://www.thegreenbutton.tv/forums/vie ... =12&t=4385]

[DanB_DE]

Today Windows Embedded 8 Standard and Windows Embedded 8 Pro have reached General Availability.

http://www.getwindowsembedded8.com/

a first look at the comparisons table
http://www.getwindowsembedded8.com/file ... arison.pdf

shows that there is no mention of Media Center / Media Pack for Embedded 8.

i have to look more detailed, but I guess that is not a good sign ;-(

[makryger]

I still don't see why the status of windows 8 should have affected their decision to release an embedded system for windows 7. No one would have complained about that, and they could have sold a lot of units.

[foxwood]

I still don't see why the status of windows 8 should have affected their decision to release an embedded system for windows 7. No one would have complained about that, and they could have sold a lot of units.

That's easy to say with the hindsight of over 4 months of Media Center in Windows 8 - it wasn't as obvious in the immediate aftermath of the Windows 8 release that a Windows7 based Q would find acceptance in the market.

[makryger]

Maybe it was just me, but i could see this coming for months.

[DanB_DE]

I still don't see why the status of windows 8 should have affected their decision to release an embedded system for windows 7. No one would have complained about that, and they could have sold a lot of units.

+1

[foxwood]

Maybe it was just me, but i could see this coming for months.

How's the fully functioning version of My Channel Logos for Windows 8 users coming along? Maybe if you'd seen that coming months ago, it'd be ready by now?