Has the "Q" totally given up the ghost?

[pduncan1963]

I know there isn't a separate forum for this but I was wondering if there has been any new or recent developments on the "Q". I saw a while back that Microsoft did say they were supporting the Embedded Windows 8, which is one of the things I understand was the stopping point of development for the Q. Any chance it could use a different platform.

So CETON, has that horse totally given up the ghost or is there still some brain activity? Hows about an update or obituary?

[foxwood]

Microsoft announced a roadmap for Windows 8 Embedded, but they didn't say whether the Media Center Pack could be added to Windows 8 Embedded Pro - remember that the Media Center Pack is a whole new license key, it's not just a software install.

Then there's the problem that a Windows 8 based Q wouldn't work with the Echo Extender as things currently stand, and all of a sudden the Q is not such a compelling offering from Ceton's point of view.

[optikhog]

Microsoft announced a roadmap for Windows 8 Embedded, but they didn't say whether the Media Center Pack could be added to Windows 8 Embedded Pro - remember that the Media Center Pack is a whole new license key, it's not just a software install.

This may sound stupid, but given that WMC8 isn't much different from WMC7, why could the Q not be based on Windows 7 embedded? Forgive my ignorance if this is the dumbest question ever presented.

[richard1980]

I've said the same thing before. IMO, Ceton just doesn't want to release the Q at this time, so they are using this as an excuse. That's just my opinion though.

[foxwood]

This may sound stupid, but given that WMC8 isn't much different from WMC7, why could the Q not be based on Windows 7 embedded? Forgive my ignorance if this is the dumbest question ever presented.

It's not a dumb question, but from a commercial point of view, releasing a new product based on Windows 7 now that Windows 8 has been released makes it a much harder sell. It might do the job nicely, but customers might be less likely to buy it.

There's also the question of access to Apps for the likes of Netflix or Hulu. It's still unclear whether providers like this will bother to release "metro" Apps that work well with a remote that a Q based on Embedded 8 could take advantage of, but it's extremely unlikely that Hulu or Netflix release new client's for Windows 7 at this point. It'll be browser only for Windows 7 users, and Browser based clients don't play well with remotes - they expect you to use a mouse.

Unfortunately, Microsofts ambivalence about Media Center makes it much harder for any 3rd party to commit to the sort of products that would build a market for Media Center. Ceton has done well with the InfiniTV, but they've been let down by Microsoft when it came to the Echo. (Though it would have been much worse for the Echo if Windows 8 was an outstanding upgrade for HTPC users). Going forward in the current environment with the Q without a very clear commitment from Microsoft just doesn't make commercial sense.

[foxwood]

IMO, Ceton just doesn't want to release the Q at this time, so they are using this as an excuse.

They don't need "an excuse". They don't want to release it because it's not a commercially viable option at this point in time.

[Moderator note: unnecessary remarks removed]

[richard1980]

It's not a dumb question, but from a commercial point of view, releasing a new product based on Windows 7 now that Windows 8 has been released makes it a much harder sell. It might do the job nicely, but customers might be less likely to buy it.

If we were talking about a computer or a tablet, that argument might make sense. But the Q is neither of those. It's an embedded set top box, and as such the underlying OS makes no difference. When the embedded box boots, it boots directly into WMC. You don't have the opportunity to open the desktop environment. That's the whole reason for using an embedded OS.

There's also the question of access to Apps for the likes of Netflix or Hulu. It's still unclear whether providers like this will bother to release "metro" Apps that work well with a remote that a Q based on Embedded 8 could take advantage of

You are assuming that the Q could even access the Metro interface and/or apps. I don't know if you are right or wrong, but it doesn't matter. Metro apps is certainly no reason to delay the Q.

Ceton has done well with the InfiniTV, but they've been let down by Microsoft when it came to the Echo.

All the more reason to build the Q with WES7.

They don't need "an excuse". They don't want to release it because it's not a commercially viable option at this point in time.

Sure they need an excuse. They wouldn't want to tell everybody the real reasons why the Q has not been released yet, which I suspect is that Ceton's focus is on the Echo and MMC and they simply don't have time to be bothered with the Q. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy the idea that Ceton is waiting for Microsoft.

[barnabas1969]

Besides... who would buy a Q when the Echo still doesn't work correctly, or even as well as a Linksys or HP extender?

[lithium630]

My guess is that Ceton could see the writing on the wall from Microsoft and decided it would make more sense to come up with their own software. Android on the Echo is some evidence. I'm sure it takes a long time to developed.

[foxwood]

Sure they need an excuse. They wouldn't want to tell everybody the real reasons why the Q has not been released yet, which I suspect is that Ceton's focus is on the Echo and MMC and they simply don't have time to be bothered with the Q. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy the idea that Ceton is waiting for Microsoft.

Ceton is a business - they don't do things because they might be fun, they do things because they think they can make money. They "don't have time to be bothered with the Q" because it's not commercially viable in the current marketplace.

You don't need an Ivy League MBA to see the logic in that!

[richard1980]

I don't have an Ivy League MBA, but I fail to see how anyone could say the Q (which is essentially a mass-market DVR) has become commercially unviable. The market for DVRs has only grown since the Q was initially announced, as evidenced by the industry statistics that show DVR usage continues to rise. Clearly there is a market, and there is potential to profit in the market. However, the market for the Q is very different from the market for the Echo. How many HTPC owners would abandon their HTPC in favor of a Q? Not many. How many HTPC users would buy an Echo? Quite a few. How many HTPC users would buy MMC? Quite a few. In both cases, far more than would trade their HTPC for the Q. Simply put, prioritizing the Echo ahead of the Q makes more business sense.

So the answer is not "the Q is not commercially viable". The answer is simply "the Q is not as commercially viable (in the near term) as the Echo and other projects that Ceton is working on". Of course, that's not something any company actually wants to tell consumers. Consumers don't want to hear "we aren't working on that because we can make more money working on another project instead".

[optikhog]

Ceton is a business - they don't do things because they might be fun, they do things because they think they can make money. They "don't have time to be bothered with the Q" because it's not commercially viable in the current marketplace.

This makes the most sense. It seems like the market for BYO PVR is dying quickly, with Tivo now being the only real STB competitor to the cable/satco's own units. Given that knowledge, it'd be a hard sell to put in that much R&D and expect to get much back out the investment.

It also seems like the bulk of the populace just wants the easiest way possible to make entertainment work, leaving the HTPC enthusiasts to fend for themselves, and brand recognition is a huge part of that equation (looking at you, Tivo). With players like Moxi falling out of the market, it seems like the niche for the Q might have been small to begin with. Realistically, DVR's obviously still have some time left in the marketplace but it's going to be hard to stop the streaming media freight train long-term.

[foxwood]

I don't have an Ivy League MBA, but I fail to see how anyone could say the Q (which is essentially a mass-market DVR) has become commercially unviable. The market for DVRs has only grown since the Q was initially announced, as evidenced by the industry statistics that show DVR usage continues to rise. Clearly there is a market, and there is potential to profit in the market.

That must be why so many companies are selling Windows 7 based DVRs, like the Q.

Oh, wait.......

[richard1980]

TiVo sealed their own fate when they let an idiot establish the prices. Really, who in their right mind expects to compete with the cable companies by charging more and delivering less?

That must be why so many companies are selling Windows 7 based DVRs, like the Q.

The reason nobody is selling a WMC-based DVR in the US is not because a WMC-based DVR is not economically viable, it's because until about 2 years ago there wasn't a tuner available that could satisfy the needs of the US market. Even today, anybody wanting to build a WMC-based DVR is pretty much out of luck because there are only three companies making CableCARD tuners. Of the three, only Ceton is a possible option for a partnership. Hauppauge's device lacks a sufficient number of tuners to meet consumer demand, and SD's DLNA plans pretty much ruin the partnership option. Only Ceton has anything close to a viable product for the US consumers. But of course, Ceton announced plans to release their own box, so partnering with them doesn't make sense (unless the Q is the result of such a partnership).

[barnabas1969]

Regarding Richard's Ivy League MBA... I've gotta say that Richard is obviously a smart guy. I appreciate what he has to offer here.

I don't know the answer to this, but I wonder if Microsoft will even SELL licenses for the Windows 7 Embedded OS into the future. I would imagine that a company wanting to produce a product on W7 Embedded might have to purchase a bulk license NOW before it's too late (unless it's already too late). In either case, there WILL be a limit to the number of licenses available, unless the company (Ceton, in this case) has unlimited funds at its disposal to purchase a TON of licenses before they are no longer available, in hope that they will sell enough units to pay for the up-front licensing cost. You can see how this would limit the number of units that said company could produce before being forced to use W8 Embedded, which in the case of Ceton, will render their extender useless (at least for now) and may not include Media Center as has been discussed previously.

That said, I have to say that I'm severely disappointed with the Echo. It was promised to be "the best Media Center extender ever". Uh... no. Not even close. They seemed to focus on the small form factor of the unit instead of the functionality. I can't imagine too many people being dissatisfied with an Echo that was about the same size as a DMA-2100. I can't imagine too many people being dissatisfied with an Echo that draws about the same power as the DMA-2100. Price/performance/functionality is king. The Echo was put into "beta" in a pre-alpha state that was an embarrassment. If it was my product at the time they put it in beta, I wouldn't have let it go beyond my employees and immediate family. Then, they released it to the public in a state that was somewhere between alpha and beta. More than a month after release to the public, it's still in a beta state. If I owned Ceton, I'd be firing some people quickly... or at least beating them with a switch from a willow tree until they fixed the damn thing. Unless, of course, it was the owner's decision to sell the thing before it was ready. At this point, I feel like I flushed $159 (the beta price) down the toilet. My HP and Linksys extenders already do more than the Echo does, and they are rock solid.

Some people have the belief that frequent firmware/software/driver updates are a good thing. Well, that depends. Some companies NEVER release updates (HP & Linksys extenders), and so problems never get fixed. Other companies (SiliconDust) get it right and leave it alone... my HD HomeRun Prime tuners have been working soooo much better than the InfiniTV tuner I had that I've never looked back. I'm still on the April 2012 firmware on my HDHRP's... and it works just fine. Granted, I have gotten some other problems fixed with my cableco, but the HDHRP was more stable from day #1 than the InfiniTV could even dream to be. Tuning reliability and speed were no comparison between the two products. Some companies fly by the seat of their pants without any real quality control and release updates every day or two or three... and they are ALL filled with bugs that even a cursory evaluation should have detected (1080 stuttering anyone?). The Echo was released to the public without even the most basic functionality that was promised. Is that acceptable? I don't think so.

Being the first company out of the gate with a new product is always an advantage for (short term) sales. Lots of people derided SiliconDust for waiting so long to release their HD HomeRun Prime tuner. An old adage: "Good things come to those who wait."

Do you really want to buy a (just guessing here) $700.00 DVR from a company that released a product like the Echo? Wait... I just laughed so hard that I think I sharted.

Look, I think Media Center is the best thing since sliced bread. It's a damn shame that Microsoft seems to be abandoning it. I do appreciate that a company like Ceton is still trying to advance the technology... but they need to step-up their game and start releasing products that actually do what they promise. The promise of the Ceton Companion (now known as "My Media Center") was that it would include streaming of protected content and a bunch of other things that it still doesn't do. I'm still waiting. The Echo promised that it would be the best extender ever produced. I'm still waiting. The promise of the Q really gave me hope. I understand that the average consumer just wants to buy a device that doesn't cost too much, and can be plugged in... and it just WORKS without too much fiddling. I still hope that idea comes to fruition. But I'm still waiting. And, given Ceton's track record... I don't believe it anymore.

A message to Ceton: Stop telling us that your product will do X, when the final product (if it ever exists) does X/3.

The TiVo has had success because it does one thing well. Focus on that. THAT is what makes companies successful. Do one thing, and do it right.

[richard1980]

An OEM can enter purchase and distribute licenses all the way up to the product distribution end date, which for WES7 is July 25, 2025.

I agree that the Echo was released early, but as long as Ceton eventually polishes it into a good product, I won't be using this as a reason to not purchase from Ceton. Obviously I'll be evaluating the performance of whatever they have to offer before I make a purchase decision. Overall I've been very happy with the InfiniTV, but then again I haven't been exposed to the other CableCARD tuners, so I have nothing to compare it with.

[barnabas1969]

An OEM can enter purchase and distribute licenses all the way up to the product distribution end date, which for WES7 is July 25, 2025.

I agree that the Echo was released early, but as long as Ceton eventually polishes it into a good product, I won't be using this as a reason to not purchase from Ceton. Obviously I'll be evaluating the performance of whatever they have to offer before I make a purchase decision. Overall I've been very happy with the InfiniTV, but then again I haven't been exposed to the other CableCARD tuners, so I have nothing to compare it with.

Well, then if an OEM can continue to purchase W7 Embedded until 2025, then Ceton doesn't have much of an excuse to not build the Q with W7 Embedded, do they?

When I bought an HD HomeRun Prime, I did it solely because of the "macroblocking" issue. But even though it didn't solve that issue, it was soooo much better in several other ways. Tuning speed was the first thing I noticed, even on SDV channels. The next thing was the lack of error/warning messages in Media Center that I used to receive with the InfiniTV. Then, I realized that I no longer had to wait after my HTPC woke from sleep. There was no longer a "spinning circle" when I tried to tune a channel after waking the PC. I found that the HDHRP tuner can be up and running for months at a time with no problems. The latest drivers/firmware at the time I purchased my HDHRP were dated some time in April 2012. They just recently released new ones to add the DLNA/DTCP-IP stuff. I'm not even sure if I want to load them after my experience with endless updates from Ceton. I don't want to take a chance at breaking my setup!

The Ceton Companion (My Media Center) was released too early... but it only cost a few bucks, it was an added feature that I didn't have before, and they quickly fixed it. The Echo, on the other hand... wasn't cheap, hasn't been fixed quickly, and hasn't (so far) added any new features to my setup. I'm on the edge of giving up on it, and putting my HP X280N back into the setup in my bedroom!

What company releases a product that doesn't even perform the basic functions, let alone the functions they promised in all of the discussions?

The only positive thing that I can say about the Echo, as compared to the Linksys/HP extenders, is: "It's small." And I don't care about that!!! The Linksys and HP extenders are already a reasonable size. Why do I need a device that is the size of a pack of cigarettes?

EDIT: I understand the appeal of a device that you can mount on the back of your wall-mounted TV. But, if I have a choice of "reasonable size, and it works" vs. "really small and doesn't work"... I'll choose functionality over size every time. If the Echo had worked as well as an XBox360, like they kept telling us it would, and it was the size of a pack of cigarettes (with only 5 watts power consumption)... I would have been extremely impressed. But... no.

[slowbiscuit]

TiVo sealed their own fate when they let an idiot establish the prices. Really, who in their right mind expects to compete with the cable companies by charging more and delivering less?

Tivo does not 'charge more and deliver less' - I have a 4-tuner Elite that runs rings around anything Comcast has, and even if I paid monthly (I don't) would be at least $5/month cheaper than their craptacular 2-tuner DVR. Yes, I did pay $300 upfront for a 4-tuner box with a 2TB drive.

You might be right in some markets, but generally speaking Tivo delivers way more at a somewhat lower price, and if you factor in resale value on lifetime sub units you'll find that they pay for themselves in less than 3 years vs. renting.

Now having said that do I think Tivo has done a great job with their stuff? No, it's a good DVR with a sometimes sluggy (but full-featured, finally) HD interface and their internet apps are mostly crap. They could have done a LOT more with what they had but no one is pushing them in this space, and they're spending most of their time keeping their cable partners happy now. That's why I really wanted the Q to see the light of day, and hopefully with SiliconDust's DLNA/DTCP-IP push we'll start to see others come out with DVR products.

[richard1980]

Well, then if an OEM can continue to purchase W7 Embedded until 2025, then Ceton doesn't have much of an excuse to not build the Q with W7 Embedded, do they?

There are only three possible benefits that I can see to holding out for W8:

1. The possibility of using Metro apps (which I don't even know if this is possible). This doesn't make sense to me because the primary reason for accessing the Metro apps would be to access online streaming content. Unfortunately, that means the Q would appear as a PC to the streaming service provider, thus limiting access to content to the same content that a W8 PC could access. Ceton would be better off using the CE APIs to build their own plugins for Netflix, Amazon, VUDU, etc., so the Q would appear as a standard CE device and thus have access to the same content any other CE device has.
2. It may allow Ceton to sell the W8 version of the Q for a longer period of time (assuming the product distribution end date for W8 is later than the product distribution end date for W7). This doesn't make much sense anyway because what are the chances CableCARD tuners are still going to be in demand in 2025? By then a new conditional access technology will likely emerge. Additionally, is there any reason why Ceton couldn't sell a W8 upgrade for a W7 Q?
3. It buys Ceton more pre-release time for the Q. This is the only thing that really makes sense.

Tivo does not 'charge more and deliver less' - I have a 4-tuner Elite that runs rings around anything Comcast has, and even if I paid monthly (I don't) would be at least $5/month cheaper than their craptacular 2-tuner DVR.

While there are certain things that TiVo's boxes can do better than a standard cable box, there's one thing TiVo can't do: Access the cable company's 2-way services (such as VOD). So it doesn't matter how the boxes compare in other areas, TiVo's boxes simply do less than the cable box.

As for pricing, I realize a customer can buy a TiVo lifetime subscription and it will be cheaper in the long run. However, TiVo has historically buried that option and focused their marketing on the options that involve paying a monthly fee. That monthly fee today is $14.99, and you still have to pay the CableCARD fee on top of that. I'll agree with you that the potential for cost savings varies from market to market. In my market, opting for TiVo over the cable company's DVR only saves me $1 per month:

Tivo service ($14.99) + CableCARD ($1.99) = $16.98
HD DVR (includes CableCARD; $7.99) + DVR service ($9.99) = $17.98

And I still have to buy the TiVo box at a cost of $100-400. It would take me anywhere from 8 to 33 years to break even. That is beyond reasonable. It's just plain stupid.

However, if you consider a scenario where TiVo's service is something more reasonable...like $4.99 per month, then my break even point would be 9-36 months, which is more reasonable.

Now if we look at the flip side, and consider that I could buy lifetime service for $500, plus a box for $100-400, and thus save $15.99 per month on my cable bill, my break even point would be 37-57 months depending on which box I buy. IMO, this is still not reasonable. 3 to 5 years to break even is just too long. It needs to be in the neighborhood of 2-3 years. That means the box plus lifetime service should be roughly $400-$600 for the most expensive box, not $900.

[foxwood]

When I bought an HD HomeRun Prime, I did it solely because of the "macroblocking" issue. But even though it didn't solve that issue, it was soooo much better in several other ways.

I don't want to gainsay what Barnabas is saying about his experience, but for anyone else who is reading, I was an early InfiniTV customer (August 2010), and have never had any problems with my card (except for the $400 price tag, but I've gotten over that ). It probably helped that I use FiOS, and don't have to deal with SDV.

Unlikely the Echo, the response from early users of the InfiniTV (once they finally got their hands on one) was largely positive.