richard1980 wrote:
Not necessarily a significant share, but at least a share that matters. Something that says people actually want your product. The 2% market share that Microsoft currently has doesn't matter, and it says people don't want the products.
I'm not saying that Microsoft shouldn't try to unify the interfaces. I'm saying Microsoft shouldn't try to unify the interfaces when nobody wants 2 out of the 3 products. Don't drag in features of those two products into the one product that people are actually buying. Leave the features out of the one product and go back to the drawing board on the other two. Come up with a new idea for those two items, and see what happens. If consumers bite, then think about unifying those interfaces.
The end of your statement is what I have a problem with. "it could be a feature to sell more people on your phones and tablets". If Microsoft was a sandwich shop, they'd be selling a ham sandwich, turd chips, and a turd smoothie. Microsoft's idea of unification is to add turds to the ham sandwich and hope that people like it enough to start buying turd chips and turd smoothies. That's the wrong answer.
lol alright, that was a hilarious analogy, credit for that one.
my problem with your statement is that your now saying no one wants a windows 8 tablet, something that doesn't exist yet. look i still disagree that WP is a dead end, but its obvious we will just have to agree to disagree on that point for now.
richard1980 wrote:
Notice how Google and Apple took it one step at a time. They introduced a product, waited for it to take hold in the market, then took features of that product and integrated those features into another product, which then led to even more success. What did they not do? They didn't introduce a product, figure out nobody is buying it, and then decide to unify their #1 selling product with the stuff that nobody is buying.
Now wait a second, MS has windows as its established platform, how the heck do you translate that to a smartphone or tablet? Lets see, MS tried a more conservative approach back with xp for tablets and the tablet features of 7, guess what, it didn't work. So their next attempt is to bring their ideas from wp to tablets and the desktop via a metro ui.
Google and Apple are starting from the mobile space and working back to pcs. Google starts with phones, moves to tablets and now works on the pc space with Chrome OS. Apple is slowly migrating iOS into their Macs, bringing them full circle as well. MS trying to emulate that same path. Heck, you include Google in your point when they aren't exactly lighting the world on fire in the tablet space where its an Apple dominated market. ICS was the first real attempt by Google to offer tablet designed features. Before that point, Google cared little about catering to that form factor and yet you have seen countless Android tablets released.
Not to mention the fact that MS has to work quicker then the other two at this point. Do you really think they can wait a few years for WP to have a big share of the market?
richard1980 wrote:
No, they can offer an ecosystem of their own...but it needs to be an ecosystem that people actually want and will buy. Nobody is buying the ecosystem right now, so now is not the time to unify.
huh? the ecosystem doesn't exist yet, so how can they be buying it? Apple is the only one with a top to bottom ecosystem while Google is close with phones, tablets, and pc services. MS has pcs, pc services, and phones now.
richard1980 wrote:
To make it clear, people that want a phone don't want a Microsoft phone. People that want a tablet don't want a Microsoft tablet. People that want a computer OS want a Microsoft OS. In short, people don't want a unified experience from Microsoft (since unification requires owning at least 2 of the 3 products). And I'm obviously excluding the small percentage of people that actually do own either a Windows phone or tablet.
That's all assumptions. How you know people would not want a tablet from Microsoft is beyond me. of course you could assume it, based on everyone hating MS i guess. This all boils down to you taking WP sales to mean that no one would want a MS phone or a MS tablet.
richard1980 wrote:
Again, you are confusing "UI" with "unified UI". I've never said that people don't want the Windows Phone UI. I've said they don't want a Windows Phone or tablet. And it doesn't really matter why Windows Phone and tablet sales are sluggish, the point is people aren't buying them.
wait, so your saying people would want the wp ui, they just don't want a MS branded phone or tablet? im not sure how you separate the two. if they don't like the phones as you say, they don't like the ui either right? Oh and since there are no windows 8 tablets yet, are you trying to bring in tablets/convertibles that run windows 7? That's a whole different animal.
richard1980 wrote:
I wouldn't call diving headfirst into an empty pool "risky". I'd call it stupid. And I think the phone market is already out of Microsoft's reach. Microsoft should have been thinking about this many years ago, but they weren't. Now it's too late. As for the tablet market, I think they've got a chance. But they haven't introduced the tablet OS that people will buy.
As for the PC market stagnating, it's important to realize that PCs aren't losing ground to Mac. Desktop and laptop computers are losing ground to tablets. If Microsoft wants to compensate for the loss of desktop/laptop OS sales, they need to introduce a tablet OS that people will actually buy.
regarding the smartphone market, I agree that MS waited too long to respond. this is literally their last chance to make a push. the reason i think they still have a chance is because the market is still young. There is a huge consumer base of people that do not own a smartphone. The market is not saturated and it is not locked down by Apple or Google. But it does mean that MS has to push very hard to make progress (i.e. they have to move faster compared to the timetables Apple and Google enjoyed), competing against two very strong companies. I don't know if they can do it, but there is a chance.
regarding tablets, windows 8 is not a suitable tablet OS response then? i thought most people thought that was its main strength and the reason the desktop experience suffers.
richard1980 wrote:
Yes, I think people do want an ecosystem that makes it easy to move their digital life from one device to another. But this move doesn't accomplish that. Trying to shove a losing product down everyone's throat isn't going to help. If Microsoft wants to make it easy to move everyone's digital life from their phone or tablet to their computer, Microsoft need to be making everyone's computer work better with Apple and Google products and services. That's the unified ecosystem that people want....the kind that unifies the products people actually own. While people are happy with their unified iOS/Android/Windows ecosystem, Microsoft could still be pursing market share in the other two markets.
That's fair enough. You feel MS needs to back off from supporting phones and tablets via an OS/hardware and instead refocus on the pc market and doing whatever they can to integrate Google and Apple services in place of the ones they have developed (i.e. skydrive, zune, bing, etc, etc).
I just don't see that as possible. The biggest issue is that the reality is that both Apple and Google wont play nice with MS to a point that MS could offer any significant improvements that integrate their services. Apple is especially against that, they are pleased to focus on integrating services that work best across Iphone, iPad, and Macs, not on a windows pc. Google is a bit better about it since they have no pc-like platform of their own (of course they are trying with Chrome OS).
To me, the future is heading to closed ecosystems where a consumer buys into one piece of that ecosystem and is lead to other pieces of that ecosystem over time. once you start buying a bunch of content on one of these platforms, its very hard to justify moving to another platform and losing that content. That is happening now and I don't see it changing anytime soon.