Is Media Center Dead?

[blueiedgod]

Comcast's cloud-based system is unlikely to draw very many users away from WMC, nor is it likely to attract users to WMC. In short, it has nothing to do with WMC being dead or alive.

Actually, TiVO is behind the cloud DVR. They have laid off all but 3 of their hardware engineers, and the new direction TiVO took, is for content to be stored on the cloud.

They have also been selling TiVO to CableTV providers, to replace Motorola/Cisco/Scientific Atlanta DVR's with TiVO.

One HUGE problem I see with any kind of cloud storage, once your connection to the outside world is dead, i.e. extensive utilities damage, when the power is out for longer than ISP has back up power for, or the lines are just down, your stored content is inaccessible. Am I the only one seeing this?

There have been times when we were without power, cable, or internet for few days at a time. Luckily, we we able to catch up on a lot of DVRed content, and kids really don't care if it is the 100th time they are watching the same Jake/Dora/Elmo/Barney episode...

[richard1980]

Comcast's cloud-based system is unlikely to draw very many users away from WMC, nor is it likely to attract users to WMC. In short, it has nothing to do with WMC being dead or alive.

But Microsoft needs to keep Comcast happy, hence you will not see extenders/media servers from them ever again. So as a doorknob right?

To argue any other way means you think they will one day again produce extenders and media servers correct? We know this is not going to happen. I am sadder than you trust me.

You are making the same mistake Ian made: You are assuming that a product becomes dead the moment development ceases.

[IownFIVEechos]

Comcast's cloud-based system is unlikely to draw very many users away from WMC, nor is it likely to attract users to WMC. In short, it has nothing to do with WMC being dead or alive.

But Microsoft needs to keep Comcast happy, hence you will not see extenders/media servers from them ever again. So as a doorknob right?

To argue any other way means you think they will one day again produce extenders and media servers correct? We know this is not going to happen. I am sadder than you trust me.

You are making the same mistake Ian made: You are assuming that a product becomes dead the moment development ceases.

I have always thought whoever comes out with a full system like Ceton original went for (Q) etc they would be unbelievably successful. I remember thinking I hope they go public once this product reaches the market. Look at Tivo their are flying high. Imagine someone coming along and actually listening to what we all want and producing it. I would think it would eventually hit main street too and become a standard, politics does play a role in all of this too. Right?

[Just13d]

What would it take to get MB3 to be able to stream encrypted content from the cable card? Is it just a license of Playready that they need?

[kingwr]

What's your himem set to?

LOL!

[richard1980]

I have always thought whoever comes out with a full system like Ceton original went for (Q) etc they would be unbelievably successful.

I agree that the product would be hugely successful if it was priced in such a way that the box would pay for itself in 2-3 years and it was actually marketed as a mainstream DVR.

Look at Tivo their are flying high.

And that is despite TiVo having a very poor price. Imagine what would happen if a company actually adopted a good pricing strategy.

[adam1991]

Tivo pays for itself in 3 years.

[tcc]

Comcast's cloud-based system is unlikely to draw very many users away from WMC, nor is it likely to attract users to WMC. In short, it has nothing to do with WMC being dead or alive.

But Microsoft needs to keep Comcast happy, hence you will not see extenders/media servers from them ever again. So as a doorknob right?

To argue any other way means you think they will one day again produce extenders and media servers correct? We know this is not going to happen. I am sadder than you trust me.

You are making the same mistake Ian made: You are assuming that a product becomes dead the moment development ceases.

Seriously?

Ian and Charlie worked directly on the WMC project for years. Whats your cred?

[richard1980]

Tivo pays for itself in 3 years.

Maybe with your cable company, but not with mine. I would only save $16.50 per month by opting for a TiVo box instead of a cable box. Assuming I purchased lifetime service ($499.99), it would take me 3.5 years to pay for a Roamio, 4.5 years to pay for Roamio Plus, and 5.5 years to pay for a Roamio Pro. Of course, if I opted to go with one of the $14.99 per month plans instead of lifetime service, I would only save $1.51 per month, which means it would take me 11 years to pay for the Roamio, 22 years to pay for the Roamio Plus, and 33.1 years to pay for the Roamio Pro. And guess which pricing option the salesman pushes to uneducated consumers? (Hint: It's not the lifetime subscription option.) And that's why TiVo is doing so poorly in the retail market.

Ian and Charlie worked directly on the WMC project for years. Whats your cred?

I'm actually smart enough to understand the difference between "dead" and "abandoned".

[Madcodger]

Tivo pays for itself in 3 years.

Maybe with your cable company, but not with mine. I would only save $16.50 per month by opting for a TiVo box instead of a cable box. Assuming I purchased lifetime service ($499.99), it would take me 3.5 years to pay for a Roamio, 4.5 years to pay for Roamio Plus, and 5.5 years to pay for a Roamio Pro. Of course, if I opted to go with one of the $14.99 per month plans instead of lifetime service, I would only save $1.51 per month, which means it would take me 11 years to pay for the Roamio, 22 years to pay for the Roamio Plus, and 33.1 years to pay for the Roamio Pro. And guess which pricing option the salesman pushes to uneducated consumers? (Hint: It's not the lifetime subscription option.) And that's why TiVo is doing so poorly in the retail market.

I think this post captures much of the problem - there's just too little financial incentive for anyone but the cable company in all this, and too much aggravation for the consumer for too little benefit. I have been renting four HD STBs for a total of $60/month and I don't like having to have the big box sitting there as we move to all wall mounted TVs. So having small Ceton Echos and Rokus and Apple TVs that could mount behind the TVs was very appealing. But it took me a good two months of tinkering to get my Echo to work well, including a reconfiguring of switches, a new router (and old one was also gigabit), and what to most consumers would be way too much in terms of router and network settings. And in the end, many problems were with WMC itself. I don't have a single friend capable of getting to that point, much less maintaining it. They're not "techies", and have no desire to be. And even I found it to be one of the more challenging / aggravating projects I've had to deal with at home, compounded greatly by the fact that it affects my wife, who just wants to relax and watch TV - a very reasonable expectation.

I think MS and Ceton and others simply figured this out. There's no money in it, because it won't work with anything but a small niche market. The cable company can build a STB that does only one thing, give everyone the exact same configuration, often connected to a router they also supply and with a unit at every TV, and make great money at it. But trying to supply the hardware AND SUPPORT for this same purpose when there are so many things that you can't control is just not a financially attractive situation.

[slowbiscuit]

But the head-scratcher here is that Ceton knew this before they started on the Echo and the Q - it is and always was a niche market. It doesn't excuse them from completely abandoning the Echo and anyone that bought it less than a year after it shipped however.

[richard1980]

I think this post captures much of the problem - there's just too little financial incentive for anyone but the cable company in all this

Don't let TiVo's poor practices spoil your opinion of the retail STB market. TiVo is arguably the best example of what not to do.

The cable company can build a STB that does only one thing, give everyone the exact same configuration, often connected to a router they also supply and with a unit at every TV, and make great money at it.

And so could Microsoft, Ceton, or anyone else. Ceton was headed in that direction a few years ago when they announced the Q...but they canceled the project. Which in hindsight is a good thing. I think that if Ceton had developed the Q, it would have flopped. Not because the idea isn't good, but because Ceton doesn't have what it takes to develop a STB that can function well enough to compete with the traditional cable box. And once the Q flopped, it would further act as a deterrent from entering the retail STB market...because most people wouldn't see the Q's failure to be a result of the company's leadership and management. Instead, people would see the Q's failure as a result of no demand. Which is exactly how many people view TiVo.