Op-Ed: Maybe WMC 8 really does have a bright future?

[barnabas1969]

Surely the overlying thing here is the measurement of 'support' we are getting for the product. This could be viewed as the marker for MC's future.
I think It's virtually non-existent. Any non North American user was ousted years ago. You have to be a real tinkerer to get any resemblance of DVR functionality.

The future of non embedded Media Center really is bleak!

You've got a point about the support. The point of the article was that if M$ would split Media Center into its own product, then they could justify support based on revenue for that specific product. It would be wonderful if we could get a real count of users who use Media Center every day. A coordinated effort to get as many people as possible to simultaneously contact Microsoft and ask them to continue to support and develop the product could help.

[STC]

Yes but it's too late to split anything they stopped thinking about! That's my point

[adam1991]

Sure, many people are happy with their clunky DVR. But if Media Center was actually marketed and packaged for the average user (Ceton "Q"), I believe that many people would dump the DVR and use Media Center.

Actually, I don't agree, sadly. Most people simply won't invest $400 -- nevertheless $800-$1200 on a DVR if the "free" one they get from their Cable provider works at a basic level.

That's a fact. I just had that conversation with a colleague. He just got the Moxi stuff from his cable provider, and compared to the previous utter crap he had, he's extremely happy.

I guess if you're used to eating bugs, McDonald's hamburgers are heaven on earth...

His rationale: I'm not going to spend money on something when the technology is going to change in a year. I'll keep renting from the cable company.

[richard1980]

1. Trending. Yes, digital cable is on a slow, downward trend.

Traditional delivery of content via linear channels is not on a downward trend. If anyone cares to disagree with me, you are welcome to check the numbers for yourself. Check SNL Kagan's data, as well as the data published by all the MVPDs during their earnings calls. Every one of them reports their subscriber changes. When you add it all up, you can see that the total number of subscribers is actually on an upward trend, not a downward trend. It's been that way for years, with the exception being during the recession. There was an extremely slight dip during the recession (something like 300,000 total subscribers lost over all the MVPDs combined, and, more importantly, it was the first time in history that the industry as a whole lost subscribers). Those subscriber losses have been erased, and even more subscribers have been added.

That said, streaming delivery of content is also on the rise. Even though we hear a lot of "talk" about cutting the cord, the reality is it isn't happening...at least not on a level significant enough to matter. Instead, what is happening is people are seeking content from the internet to go along with the content they get via traditional linear delivery. It's not a matter of A OR B...it's A AND B.

[barnabas1969]

First, let me say... God, I love this topic!

Now that I've gotten that out of the way...

Yes but it's too late to split anything they stopped thinking about! That's my point

If you were the head of Microsoft... and someone came along and said... "Hey, we've got this devoted group of 1 million Media Center junkies who are willing to pay an extra $100 per license for the product... if we add some new features and fix some bugs." Would you turn down $100 million in almost pure profit?

That's a fact. I just had that conversation with a colleague. He just got the Moxi stuff from his cable provider, and compared to the previous utter crap he had, he's extremely happy.

I guess if you're used to eating bugs, McDonald's hamburgers are heaven on earth...

His rationale: I'm not going to spend money on something when the technology is going to change in a year. I'll keep renting from the cable company.

I used to be in that boat. I figured that if the DVR broke, or if technology changed, then why would I want to be on the hook for outdated, broken hardware? Well, I rented a DVR for 8 years. It never broke... and technology didn't change. I paid about $1,920.00 for that single DVR... and suffered with crappy analog standard definition TV on all my other sets. That's more than I paid for my whole-home DVR solution with a Media Center PC and four extenders! I now have better video quality than I had with the DVR (even on the primary TV), a better guide (I don't see the channels that I don't subscribe to!), it can play DVD's and BluRays, it can play NetFlix and Hulu, and it's a full-blown Windows PC with a browser and everything... connected to my living room TV!!! Who wouldn't want that after they see it in action? Put it this way... let's say that a "Q" and four Echos cost $1300. Put that on your credit card and pay it off in four years. You've paid less per month than the cable company's "whole home" DVR solution... and you still own the system... free and clear!

Traditional delivery of content via linear channels is not on a downward trend. If anyone cares to disagree with me, you are welcome to check the numbers for yourself. Check SNL Kagan's data, as well as the data published by all the MVPDs during their earnings calls. Every one of them reports their subscriber changes. When you add it all up, you can see that the total number of subscribers is actually on an upward trend, not a downward trend. It's been that way for years, with the exception being during the recession. There was an extremely slight dip during the recession (something like 300,000 total subscribers lost over all the MVPDs combined, and, more importantly, it was the first time in history that the industry as a whole lost subscribers). Those subscriber losses have been erased, and even more subscribers have been added.

That said, streaming delivery of content is also on the rise. Even though we hear a lot of "talk" about cutting the cord, the reality is it isn't happening...at least not on a level significant enough to matter. Instead, what is happening is people are seeking content from the internet to go along with the content they get via traditional linear delivery. It's not a matter of A OR B...it's A AND B.

Go Richard!!! I was thinking the same thing, but I didn't have facts to back it up. I'm one of the "bleeding edge" folks... and I'm considering the pro's and con's of cutting the cord. And even I am still leaning toward keeping cable in some way or another. Plus, like I wrote earlier... if enough people "cut the cord", the cable companies will combat that by restricting the amount of data you can download. Streaming content will never win. DVR's are here to stay... and Media Center is the cream of the crop.

[tony_park]

I wonder if MS's approach is to charge for the app, is to see how many people are actually using/bothered about the application.

However, I, for one, won't be upgrading to Windows 8 from Windows 7, unless there are new pieces of functionality, that make me think, wow, must have that.

I suspect, that by the time windows 9 comes out, MC will have died, the EPG data will no longer be provided and we'll be stuck with something 'better'.

I'd like MS to prove me wrong, but I don't want to hold my breath for it to happen!

Alternatively, it would be nice to see new functionality added, and that we all flock to windows 8, and download the upgrade, and MS see that there is value in the product, and start to support it properly again.


I lost track of the last time, I saw Pete Brown on WEC, suspect it was just after we all migrated to it... and he was our last MS hope...

[mark1234]

I wonder if MS's approach is to charge for the app, is to see how many people are actually using/bothered about the application.

However, I, for one, won't be upgrading to Windows 8 from Windows 7, unless there are new pieces of functionality, that make me think, wow, must have that.

I suspect, that by the time windows 9 comes out, MC will have died, the EPG data will no longer be provided and we'll be stuck with something 'better'.

I'd like MS to prove me wrong, but I don't want to hold my breath for it to happen!

Alternatively, it would be nice to see new functionality added, and that we all flock to windows 8, and download the upgrade, and MS see that there is value in the product, and start to support it properly again.


I lost track of the last time, I saw Pete Brown on WEC, suspect it was just after we all migrated to it... and he was our last MS hope...

+1

[gcoupe]

"Maybe WMC 8 really does have a bright future"

Frankly, if you really do believe that, I have a bridge that you may be interested in purchasing...

[trooper11]

This still doesn't rule out the possibility that MS wants to replace WMC, not just get rid of it. Nothing they have said up to this point would suggest that they don't wont to provide media features.

The reason for phasing out mc as it is today would be three fold:

1. Remove the cost of codec licensing from the base cost of windows and the cost of supporting/developing media center

2. Write a new app in WinRT vs trying to convert mcml (a dead platform)

3. Offer that apps through the marketplace, passing the costs onto customers that actually want the features instead of all windows users.


Now I think its equally possible that MS decides to let third parties pick up the slack, which I'm sure they would love to see, but I don't think its outlandish to think MS would be willing to devote resources to a standalone app that would integrate into Metro to drive various media functions.

[mark1234]

If you read the post then they clearly do want to provide media features, and they do talk up the Win8 metro media apps. But what they aren't interested in is broadcast media as their stats show this is a small and declining use case.

[tommo]

I think MC8 will be the last version of what we know as media center.

I think it will be the last time MS will provide guide data (anyone know how long the guide data will last with win8)

I think the only thing we can hope for is that Microsoft support remote control in their media apps for music, video and audio AND hope that other 3rd parties support this also. I would think if MS don't do this that we'll see other companies start to produce remote friendly apps for metro, which would also include TV.

I think the MCML/media center as we know it today will die after win8 and i think if it wasn't for the community being so vocal we'd probably not get anything.

Such a shame, media center is probably my favorite piece of software ever but really all it takes is a few good metro apps to take its place.

I think they'll be so many decent metro apps for streaming services etc we'll end up spending more and more time on the windows start screen that from within media center.

[crawfish]

If you read the post then they clearly do want to provide media features, and they do talk up the Win8 metro media apps. But what they aren't interested in is broadcast media as their stats show this is a small and declining use case.

Funny, because the DVR is the only reason to put up with Media Center, and that's been the case for years. There are much better programs (and devices) for music and other video than anything Microsoft has ever produced. I gave up on Microsoft long ago for multimedia except for the DVR, and my only regret is sticking with Microsoft as long as I did. As I see it, Microsoft's plan is to focus on the things for which it is irrelevant, while abandoning the one thing for which it is exclusive (DVR with CableCARD), all the while pursuing the stupid idea of putting Metro on non-touch devices and splintering the Windows software market into Metro apps and "old" programs.

[mark1234]

I think it will be the last time MS will provide guide data (anyone know how long the guide data will last with win8)

Up until now it's been easy to say that MS would (should) provide guide data for the period of Mainstream support of a consumer version of Windows. This is the longer of 5 years or 2 years after the replacement version is released. So with Win8 (we assume) being released this year, you'd expect Win7 to exit Mainstream support in just over 2 years time. In reality MS have already published that Mainstream Win7 support will finish on 13/1/15.

With 8MC not being part of the core Windows product, but an add-on I have no idea how that affects the support lifecycle.

References:
http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/?p1=14484
http://support.microsoft.com/gp/lifepolicy

[mark1234]

the DVR is the only reason to put up with Media Center, and that's been the case for years.

That's pretty much always been the only reason to deal with Media Centre. It's certainly the reason I bought into it.

while abandoning the one thing for which it is exclusive (DVR with CableCARD)

The problem with that exclusivity is that it's US only. No one else uses CableCard, which is like 98% of the world's population. Even MS can figure out the maths there.

[trooper11]

Well whether its MS itself or a third party, I believe that there will be Metro apps that could take the place of media center.